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Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022025
1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Tropical Depression Two is poorly organized at this time. During 
the latter part of the Hurricane Hunter Mission this afternoon, the 
aircraft was unable to close off the circulation. Since that time, 
conventional satellite imagery and 2235 UTC SSM/IS overpass show 
little change in organization, although surface observations 
suggest the circulation is still closed. The initial intensity is 
held at 25 kt in agreement with current satellite intensity 
estimates.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/7. The subtropical 
ridge to the east and northeast of the cyclone should steer the 
system generally west-northwestward for the next couple of days, 
bringing the center to the eastern coast of Mexico near the 24 h 
point.  There is little change in either the track guidance or the 
track forecast since the last advisory.  It should be noted that 
some erratic motion could occur as the circulation interacts with 
the coast of Mexico. 

The cyclone is experiencing 20-25 kt of southwesterly vertical 
shear. However, the upper-level winds are divergent, which should 
allow the system to produce significant convection.  It is expected 
that this convection will lead to a little strengthening despite 
the shear, and based on this the depression is forecast to become a 
tropical storm near the time of landfall.  After landfall, the 
cyclone is expected to rapidly weaken over eastern Mexico.
 
Given the forecast for the depression to become a tropical storm
before landfall, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a 
portion of their eastern Gulf coastline of Mexico.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Sunday for portions of
the Gulf coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.
 
2. Tropical Depression Two will produce heavy rainfall across 
portions of northeastern Mexico. Life-threatening flooding and 
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 19.7N  95.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 20.3N  96.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 21.3N  97.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 22.1N  98.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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