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Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024
500 PM HST Sat Aug 31 2024
Earlier this afternoon, the increasingly ragged low-level
circulation center (LLCC) of Hone tucked itself underneath a burst
of deep convection, but as the convection began to dissipate, it
caused even more disruption to the once again exposed LLCC. GOES-
West derived total precipitable water imagery reveals a nose of
dry air is working cyclonically around the southern portion of an
upper low about 220 nm south of Midway Atoll. This dry air has
managed to overspread what's left of Hone's LLCC. Current intensity
estimates remain 2.0 from PHFO and JTWC, and 2.5 from SAB.
Objective estimates were slightly higher, and seemed to agree well
with the uncontaminated ASCAT-B winds from the 2149 UTC pass. Thus,
the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt for this advisory.
The initial motion is 340/9, as Hone continues to work its way
toward the low aloft. The track guidance is in good agreement that
Hone's more recent northward motion will become more west-northwest
again over the next 24 hours as the two features merge. This should
be followed by significant slowing in the 24 to 36 hour timeframe.
An erratic, slow motion between 36 and 48 hours should lead to a
gradually increasing northward motion near the International Date
Line by 48 hours as the now vertically-aligned Hone starts to move
toward a mid-level col. The track guidance beyond 48 hours
continues to trend slower with Hone as the models now show a deep
layer anticyclone at the surface and aloft building north of the
system. The forecast once again has been similarly adjusted toward
the guidance consensus at the longer time ranges.
The intensity forecast remains rather challenging, and the guidance
continues to trend gradually weaker with time. Although Hone is
finally entering a weak shear environment with sea surface
temperatures of 28C or so through the first 48 hours, increasing
dry air entrainment is now expected to allow for only modest
intensification. The latest forecast has been adjusted slightly
lower once again to follow this idea, but near the high
end of the envelope of the reliable guidance.
Due to the greater-than-normal uncertainties in the track, size,
and intensity of Hone as it continues to interact with the low
aloft, we are maintaining Tropical Storm Watches for Kure,
Midway Atoll, and Pearl and Hermes Atolls.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 23.9N 176.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 25.1N 177.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 26.1N 179.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 26.5N 179.9E 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 27.5N 179.9E 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 29.0N 180.0E 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 30.4N 179.6E 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 32.2N 178.1E 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 33.9N 176.8E 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster R Ballard
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