ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number  23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024
 
Despite moderate to strong westerly shear, Hone continues to 
produce a cluster of strong convection just northeast of the 
low-level center.  The various subjective and objective satellite 
intensity estimates are currently ranging from 35-55 kt, and the 
initial intensity is kept at a possibly conservative 45 kt.

The cyclone continues to move west-northwestward of 285/9 kt. There 
is again little change to the track forecast philosophy, as flow 
around a low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical 
cyclone should maintain this general motion for the next 2-3 days. 
There is little change to the track guidance from the previous 
advisory, and there is also little change to the forecast track.

Strong westerly shear of 40 kt should affect Hone for the next few 
days, and that combined with dry air entrainment should cause 
weakening.  Based on this and the intensity guidance, the new 
intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling 
for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area around 
60-72 h.  One change in the intensity forecast was to add a day as a 
remnant low in agreement with the global models.  It should be noted 
that Hone or its remnants could become involved with a large mid- to 
upper-level low near the International Dateline at about 120 h, with 
the global models showing a surface low in the area. Currently, it 
is not clear whether if this low is Hone or a new formation, and 
until there is more clarity, the forecast continues to show Hone 
dissipating by this time.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 20.3N 167.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 20.6N 168.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 20.9N 170.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 21.3N 172.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 21.8N 174.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  30/1200Z 22.3N 176.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  31/0000Z 22.7N 177.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z 23.0N 179.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
NNNN