ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number   6
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP012024
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 23 2024
 
The U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are flying into Hone 
this morning. In spite of the tropical storm's continued lack of 
persistent deep convection, it presents a well-developed low level 
cloud field on satellite imagery. A center dropsonde found a 
minimum sea level pressure of 1002 mb, and flight level wind 
reduction and SFMR in the northeast quadrant support raising the 
initial intensity to 45 kt. Based on the aircraft data, the wind 
radii were adjusted for most quadrants on this advisory. Additional 
aircraft missions are planned for today and tonight.

The initial motion is set at 280/14. This general motion toward 
slightly north of due west will continue during the next several 
days as Hone is steered by a deep subtropical ridge to the north. 
However, some slowing of the forward motion is anticipated as the 
deep ridge to the north of Hone weakens slightly. By the middle of 
next week, Hone will likely get increasingly shallow as vertical 
wind shear increases, allowing the low level trade wind flow to 
steer the system toward the west. The official forecast track is 
nearly identical to the previous advisory, and closely follows the 
tightly clustered consensus guidance. On this track, Hone will be 
passing near or just south of the Big Island of Hawaii late 
Saturday into early Sunday.

Little change in intensity is expected in the next 12 to 18 hours, 
followed intensification Saturday and Sunday. Easterly winds aloft, 
which have inhibited outflow in all but the south and southwest 
quadrants, will relax tonight and Saturday as a weakness develops 
in the upper level ridge north of the cyclone. Sea surface 
temperatures will remain around 26-27C, which will be sufficient 
for intensification, possibly to hurricane strength, later in the 
weekend. By Monday, westerly vertical wind shear increases sharply, 
and some drier mid-level air appears to begin entraining into the 
system. This should result in steady weakening. The intensity 
forecast was changed little from the prior package and lies near 
the IVCN between the stronger dynamical guidance and the weaker 
statistical guidance.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. There is the potential for excessive rainfall and flash flooding
on portions of the Big Island starting later Saturday, continuing
through Sunday and lingering into Monday as a large area of
moisture associated with Hone. The heaviest rainfall will likely
occur over windward and southeast facing slopes.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on the Big Island later
Saturday into Sunday. Winds are expected to be strongest where they
blow downslope from higher terrain, over headlands, and through
passes.
 
3. Swell generated by Hone is expected to reach the Hawaiian
islands Saturday night into Sunday. This swell could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 16.7N 147.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 17.1N 149.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 17.5N 152.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 17.8N 155.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 18.2N 157.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 18.6N 159.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 19.0N 161.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 19.7N 164.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 20.2N 167.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Wroe
 
NNNN