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TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192023
2100 UTC THU NOV 02 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  96.9W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  90SE 120SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  96.9W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N  96.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 10.9N  99.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 10.4N 102.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 10.3N 105.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.5N 108.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 10.7N 110.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 11.2N 112.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 12.3N 114.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 13.6N 117.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N  96.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 
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