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TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192023
0300 UTC WED NOV 01 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  89.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  60SE  75SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  89.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N  89.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.9N  89.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.7N  91.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.3N  93.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 10.6N  96.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z  9.8N  98.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z  9.4N 101.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE  20SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z  9.0N 106.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 10.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N  89.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 01/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 
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