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Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
300 AM MDT Sat Nov 04 2023
 
Deep convection has continued to pulse near and to the east of the
center of Pilar overnight. There were no complete ASCAT passes over
the storm tonight, but a partial ASCAT-C pass suggests the strongest
winds remain confined to the northern semicircle. The various
satellite intensity estimates range from 30-44 kt, and the initial
intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.
 
Despite moving over warm waters in a weak to moderate westerly shear 
environment, the small storm has struggled to sustain convection at 
times during the past couple of days due to the negative effects of 
dry air. In the near term, GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery 
suggest this trend could continue. The upper-level environment is 
forecast to become more diffluent in 24-36 h, and the GFS along with 
some of the regional models show strengthening could occur during 
this period. However, there are also indications that mid-level 
shear will increase around the same time, which would likely result 
in additional bouts of dry air intrusions. While small intensity 
fluctuations seem possible during the next couple of days, the NHC 
forecast follows the corrected consensus (HCCA) aid and shows no 
change in strength through the weekend. Weakening is expected 
beginning Monday as Pilar moves into a drier and strongly sheared 
environment. Similar to the previous prediction, this forecast shows 
degeneration into a remnant low by 72 h and dissipation by day 5.
 
A mid-level ridge to the north of Pilar is steering the storm 
quickly westward (265 degrees/14 kt). This steering ridge is 
forecast to become eroded by a mid-level trough near the Baja 
California peninsula over the weekend. This should cause Pilar to 
gradually slow down and gain some latitude, with a turn toward the 
west-northwest and northwest forecast early next week. There is 
large spread in the track guidance envelope beyond 24 h, with the 
differences likely related to the strength and vertical depth of the 
cyclone. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous 
one and remains close to HCCA, which falls between the stronger 
(weaker) models on the right (left) side of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z  9.8N 107.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z  9.8N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 10.1N 111.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 10.6N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 11.3N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 11.9N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 12.7N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z 14.5N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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