ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
400 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023
 
Deep convection over the center of Pilar has collapsed this morning. 
The low-level circulation of the compact storm is exposed, and only 
small areas of convective activity are noted well away from the 
center. These changes are likely the result of some dry air 
intrusions and westerly shear over the small cyclone. Given its 
lackluster satellite presentation, and its increased distance from 
the enhanced background flow associated with a gap wind event, it is 
assumed that some weakening has occurred overnight. Thus, the 
initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt.
 
Pilar is moving quickly west-southwestward (255/19 kt), steered by a 
combination of the low-level northeasterly gap wind flow and the 
flow associated with a mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of 
the storm. A weakness is expected to develop in this ridge during 
the next couple of days as a mid-level trough/cut-off low moves 
toward the Baja California peninsula. This weakness in the ridge 
should cause Pilar to gradually slow down and turn toward the west 
and west-northwest through early next week. The track guidance is in 
reasonably good agreement on this scenario. The latest NHC track 
forecast generally remains between the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids, 
and this prediction is very similar to the previous one.
 
The westerly shear and bouts of dry air entrainment are likely to 
continue over the next couple of days. The latest GFS and ECMWF 
simulated satellite imagery does show convection returning with 
Pilar later this morning, but it also suggests that its convective 
structure may continue fluctuating in the coming days. Since Pilar 
is a small storm, it will be more susceptible to disruptions from 
the marginal environmental conditions. Although Pilar will remain 
over very warm waters, the intensity guidance generally shows little 
change in strength through the weekend, and the NHC forecast follows 
suit. As Pilar gains latitude at days 3-5, the cyclone is expected 
to weaken as it encounters stronger southwesterly shear. In fact, 
this forecast shows Pilar degenerating to a 30-kt remnant low by the 
end of the period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 10.4N 101.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 10.0N 103.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z  9.7N 106.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z  9.8N 109.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 10.1N 111.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  05/1800Z 10.5N 113.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 11.3N 115.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 13.0N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 14.5N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
NNNN