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Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
400 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023
 
Pilar has not changed much during the past several hours.  The storm 
continues to produce a ragged area of deep convection that lacks 
banding features with dry and stable air, associated with the 
ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, intruding into the 
circulation.  Despite this steady state appearance, a recent ASCAT-C 
pass showed peak winds between 45 and 50 kt, and therefore, the 
initial intensity is nudged back up to 50 kt.  This value is above 
the latest Dvorak classifications.  Pilar is quite compact with its 
tropical-storm-force winds estimated to only extend up to 60 n mi 
from the center and its overall deep cloud field only extending a 
little more than 100 n mi across.

The environmental conditions around Pilar during the next few days 
are marginal.  Although SSTs are warm, the vertical wind shear is 
expected to be moderate and dry air in the vicinity of the cyclone 
could continue to intrude into the circulation.  The net result will 
likely be fluctuations in strength through the weekend.  By early 
next week, however, Pilar is expected to move into a region of 
stronger shear, and that should result in a weakening trend.  The 
NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one, mostly based 
on the initial intensity, and lies near the middle of the guidance 
envelope.

The storm is moving just south of due west at 14 kt.  A continued 
swift west-southwestward to westward motion is expected during the 
next day or two while the system remains steered by a low- to 
mid-level ridge to its northwest.  After that time, a slow down and 
a westward to west-northwestward motion is predicted as the ridge 
breaks down and the weakening system moves in the low- to mid-level 
flow.  The track models are in relatively good agreement, and little 
change was made to the previous NHC track forecast.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 11.6N  96.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 10.9N  99.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 10.4N 102.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 10.3N 105.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 10.5N 108.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 10.7N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 11.2N 112.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 12.3N 114.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 13.6N 117.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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