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Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
400 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023
 
After a lull in convective activity last night, a small area of deep 
convection has developed and persisted with Pilar early this 
morning. The center of the compact storm is located underneath a 
small cold dense overcast, and the latest satellite intensity 
estimates have risen as a result of this improved convective 
structure. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt for this advisory, 
in best agreement with a T3.0/45 kt subjective Dvorak classification 
from TAFB and a 45-kt SATCON estimate.
 
Pilar is accelerating westward away from land (265 degrees/12 kt). 
As a mid-level ridge continues building to the north and northwest 
of Pilar, the storm is expected to move faster to the west-southwest 
during the next couple of days. Over the weekend, a shortwave trough 
is forecast to move across the Baja California peninsula and weaken 
the steering ridge. As a result, Pilar should slow down and turn 
toward the west and west-northwest early next week. In general, 
there is good agreement among the models on the future track of 
Pilar, with more of the differences in the along-track direction. 
Once again, the official NHC forecast is slightly faster than the 
previous prediction based on the latest TVCE and HCCA aids.
 
Pilar is near a strong band of low-level northerly winds associated 
with an ongoing Tehuantepec gap wind event. The gap wind flow could 
introduce some drier air into Pilar's circulation and/or briefly 
disrupt its convective organization. Otherwise, the storm is 
forecast to move over warm waters in a generally weak to moderate 
shear environment through this weekend. There is more spread noted 
in the intensity guidance at 48-72 h. Some of the regional hurricane 
models (HWRF, HAFS-A) show strengthening during this period, while 
the global models and other regional guidance (HMON, HAFS-B) show 
little change or some weakening. Given the higher initial intensity 
and guidance trends this cycle, the updated NHC forecast is slightly 
stronger than the previous one through the first few days of the 
period. But overall, little change in strength is forecast during 
the next few days. As Pilar gains latitude at days 4-5, it should 
encounter stronger southwesterly shear and weaken more.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 12.3N  94.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 11.5N  96.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 10.6N  99.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 10.0N 102.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z  9.9N 105.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 10.0N 108.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 10.3N 110.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 11.3N 113.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 12.5N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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