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HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172023
0900 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 110.1W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 110.1W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 110.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.7N 110.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.5N 109.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.9N 109.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   5SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.2N 108.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.7N 107.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 110.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 21/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
 
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