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HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172023
0300 UTC SAT OCT 21 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 109.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 109.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 110.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 109.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.6N 109.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   5SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.9N 108.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.3N 107.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.8N 106.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 109.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 21/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
 
 
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