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HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172023
0300 UTC FRI OCT 20 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.1W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 108.1W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 108.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.2N 108.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.6N 109.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.2N 109.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.8N 109.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.4N 108.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.3N 106.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 108.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 20/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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