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Hurricane Norma Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172023
300 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2023
 
Norma made landfall along the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula just west-northwest of Cabo San Lucas around 2015 UTC with 
estimated maximum winds of 70 kt. The center of the tropical cyclone 
has become exposed this afternoon, as increasing southerly shear 
stripped away the associated deep convection. An Air Force Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft sampled Norma shortly before landfall and found 
hurricane-force SFMR winds in the northwest quadrant, with a peak of 
73 kt. A center dropsonde supported a minimum pressure of around 974 
mb. Assuming some continued weakening since the plane departed, the 
landfall and advisory intensity is set at 70 kt.
 
With Norma becoming a more shallow vortex, it has slowed down and 
turned north-northeastward (15 degrees/5 kt). The cyclone will move 
across the southern portion of Baja California Sur through tonight, 
with continued weakening expected due to the negative influences of 
increasing shear, drier air, and land interaction. Norma should 
emerge over the southern Gulf of California as a tropical storm 
early Sunday, then move northeastward and make landfall along the 
coast of Sinaloa in western Mexico within the tropical storm warning 
area. The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly north 
of the previous prediction, in agreement with the latest multi-model 
consensus aids. Once Norma moves inland, it will quickly dissipate 
over the rugged terrain of western Mexico.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rains from Norma will continue to impact southern portions
of Baja California Sur through Sunday, and through Sinaloa into
Monday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
 
2. Hurricane conditions will continue for the next few hours within
the Hurricane Warning area over the far southern Baja California
peninsula.
 
3. Norma is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the west coast of Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area
beginning early Sunday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 23.1N 110.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 23.7N 109.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 24H  22/1800Z 24.5N 109.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  23/0600Z 24.8N 108.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 48H  23/1800Z 25.1N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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