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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122023
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
1100 AM HST Fri Sep 15 2023
The tropical disturbance that we've been watching for a few days
had a burst of vigorous deep convection overnight. Overnight
microwave passes and satellite imagery over the last 24 hours have
shown increased organization at times in the convective banding. The
deep convection now appears to be persistent and organized enough
to classify this system as a tropical depression. A blend of
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CPHC suggest
initiating advisories for this system with an intensity of 25 kt.
More recently, visible satellite imagery is showing the low level
center has emerged from the higher clouds associated with the
convection.
UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that Tropical Depression 12E is
embedded within the southern periphery of a belt of stronger
westerly shear, associated with the subtropical jet stream to the
north. The depression is not likely to last long, as global models
indicate the subtropical jet will sag south a bit over the next
couple of days, maintaining westerly shear over the system.
Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggests that
occasional pulses of deep convection may continue for a day or so
as the system is steered toward the west-southwest by the trade
wind flow to the south of a strengthening subtropical ridge. The
track forecast most closely follows the TVCN until the system
becomes a remnant low far to the east-southeast of Hawaii.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 15.1N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.0N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 14.8N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 14.7N 140.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1800Z 14.5N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster R Ballard
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