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Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023
Jova continues to deteriorate in latest satellite imagery. Dry air
continues to work into this system, with deep convection starting
to dissipate. Broken convective banding around the system is
deteriorating with warming cloud tops in infrared satellite imagery
A blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
suggest an intensity of 55 kt, which is the initial intensity for
this advisory.
Jova is forecast to continue weakening during the next several days
as the system moves over cool sea surface temperatures, and into a
more stable airmass. Simulated satellite from the GFS and ECMWF
suggest Jova will be devoid of deep convection and become a remnant
low in about 48 hours, this is reflected in the NHC intensity
forecast. However, the transition to a remnant low could occur
sooner than forecast.
The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 9 kt. Jova
should continue to move generally toward the northwest around the
edge of a subtropical ridge located over the southwestern United
States. As Jova weakens, the system is forecast to turn westward to
west-southwestward into the low-level flow through the end of the
forecast period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
forecast track.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 22.3N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 23.3N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 24.2N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 24.7N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 24.8N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/0000Z 24.4N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Kelly
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