ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023 Jova continues to deteriorate in latest satellite imagery. Dry air continues to work into this system, with deep convection starting to dissipate. Broken convective banding around the system is deteriorating with warming cloud tops in infrared satellite imagery A blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates suggest an intensity of 55 kt, which is the initial intensity for this advisory. Jova is forecast to continue weakening during the next several days as the system moves over cool sea surface temperatures, and into a more stable airmass. Simulated satellite from the GFS and ECMWF suggest Jova will be devoid of deep convection and become a remnant low in about 48 hours, this is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast. However, the transition to a remnant low could occur sooner than forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 9 kt. Jova should continue to move generally toward the northwest around the edge of a subtropical ridge located over the southwestern United States. As Jova weakens, the system is forecast to turn westward to west-southwestward into the low-level flow through the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 22.3N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 23.3N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 24.2N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 24.7N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 24.8N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0000Z 24.4N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:15 UTC