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Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023
Jova is continuing its weakening trend. A microwave pass from
around 0300 UTC still showed the remnants of a decaying eyewall
surrounded by a larger secondary eyewall. Recent geostationary
satellite imagery show dry slots working their way towards the inner
core and warming cloud top temperatures. As a result, subjective
and objective satellite estimates have been quickly decreasing. The
initial intensity has been set to 95 kt, which represents a blend
of the data-T and current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB.
The hurricane is crossing over the 26 degree C isotherm and headed
towards even cooler ocean waters. Environmental conditions are also
expected to become increasingly hostile during the next few days.
The latest NHC forecast continues to show rapid to steady weakening
and is similar to the previous advisory, though has been adjusted
lower due to the decreased initial intensity. Jova will likely be a
remnant low by day 4, but this transition could occur sooner.
Jova is moving to the west-northwest at 14 kt. This general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days while Jova is
steered by a ridge centered over the southwestern United States. As
convection collapses, the weaker vortex is forecast to turn westward
to west-southwestward in the trade winds by the end of the forecast
period. The official track prediction has been shifted slightly
northward of the previous advisory and is a little slower at day 3
and beyond, keeping it close to the various consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 19.1N 119.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 20.0N 121.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 21.1N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 22.5N 125.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 23.7N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 24.6N 127.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 25.0N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 25.0N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z 24.6N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Bucci
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