ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023 Jova is continuing its weakening trend. A microwave pass from around 0300 UTC still showed the remnants of a decaying eyewall surrounded by a larger secondary eyewall. Recent geostationary satellite imagery show dry slots working their way towards the inner core and warming cloud top temperatures. As a result, subjective and objective satellite estimates have been quickly decreasing. The initial intensity has been set to 95 kt, which represents a blend of the data-T and current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The hurricane is crossing over the 26 degree C isotherm and headed towards even cooler ocean waters. Environmental conditions are also expected to become increasingly hostile during the next few days. The latest NHC forecast continues to show rapid to steady weakening and is similar to the previous advisory, though has been adjusted lower due to the decreased initial intensity. Jova will likely be a remnant low by day 4, but this transition could occur sooner. Jova is moving to the west-northwest at 14 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days while Jova is steered by a ridge centered over the southwestern United States. As convection collapses, the weaker vortex is forecast to turn westward to west-southwestward in the trade winds by the end of the forecast period. The official track prediction has been shifted slightly northward of the previous advisory and is a little slower at day 3 and beyond, keeping it close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 19.1N 119.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 20.0N 121.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 21.1N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 22.5N 125.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 23.7N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 24.6N 127.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 25.0N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 25.0N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z 24.6N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2023 12:10:14 UTC