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Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 07 2023
Jova appears to have halted its rather impressive intensification.
The central dense overcast has become more asymmetric, with deep
bursts of convection developing to the south of the circulation,
and the cloud top temperatures have generally warmed. The initial
intensity is held at 140 kt to represent a blend of the subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates that range between
134-155 kt.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain conducive for some
additional strengthening. However, structural changes such as the
eyewall replacement cycles discussed in the previous advisory, may
cause some short-term intensity fluctuations. The NHC prediction
still allows for some strengthening within 12 h before beginning a
rapid weakening trend as the hurricane moves over increasingly
cooler ocean waters and into a dry and stable airmass. By the end of
forecast period, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS model
suggests the cyclone will be devoid of convection, and official
forecast shows Jova to be a post-tropical remnant low by day 5.
The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward at 14 kt around
the edge of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The
ridge is expected to be the dominate steering feature during the
next few days and Jova should maintain the same general motion until
the end of the forecast period. At that point the weakening,
shallow vortex should turn westward in the low-level flow. The NHC
track forecast has been shifted to the north slightly and is a bit
slower than the previous prediction, still between the HCCA and TVCN
consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0900Z 16.4N 114.4W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 17.3N 116.4W 150 KT 175 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 18.5N 119.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 19.7N 121.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 20.9N 124.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 22.2N 126.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 23.4N 128.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 25.0N 130.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 25.5N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Bucci
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