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TROPICAL STORM HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023
1500 UTC WED AUG 16 2023
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
OXNARD CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17)
SAN DIEGO CA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SAN DIEGO CA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26)
ENSENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
ENSENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24)
IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
IS GUADALUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 35(62)
PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28)
PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11)
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 14(59)
P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27)
P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 2(24)
LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18)
P PENASCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
P PENASCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17)
BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
15N 105W 34 X 80(80) 2(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
15N 105W 50 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
15N 105W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 30(31) 27(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59)
15N 110W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
15N 110W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 25(34) 1(35) X(35)
20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 49(85) X(85) X(85)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 42(48) X(48) X(48)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) X(26) X(26)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 37(40) 3(43) X(43)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 51(52) 8(60) X(60)
20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 6(25) X(25)
20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13)
25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 64(66) 4(70)
25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 4(38)
25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19)
25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12)
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
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