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Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 16 2023
Fernanda appears unlikely to remain a tropical cyclone for much
longer. While it produced some sheared bursts of convection to the
west of its exposed center earlier tonight, the storm is currently
devoid of any convective activity. If this persists, Fernanda could
be declared a post-tropical cyclone later this morning. There have
been no recent scatterometer passes over the storm, so the intensity
of Fernanda remains quite uncertain. Assuming a continued spin down
of the vortex, the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 35 kt.
This is in best agreement with the 06 UTC Dvorak final-T number from
TAFB and the latest UW-CIMSS objective satellite estimates.
Fernanda is moving westward at 265/13 kt. This general motion will
continue for the next few days as the cyclone moves along the
southern extent of a low- to mid-level ridge to its north. The
thermodynamic environment along Fernanda's forecast track will
become more unfavorable for sustained organized convection as the
cyclone moves over sub-26C waters with dry, stable air in the
surrounding environment. Thus, the NHC forecast shows degeneration
to a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday with continued weakening
into this weekend. With the latest guidance in good agreement, no
notable changes were made to the official NHC forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 16.6N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 16.5N 132.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/0600Z 16.4N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1800Z 16.4N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0600Z 16.4N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/1800Z 16.4N 143.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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