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Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023
500 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023
Recent satellite imagery shows that Fernanda has not changed much in
appearance and a possible ragged eye has appeared in the last few
hours. Earlier microwave passes indicate that the hurricane still
has a well-defined center with concentric eyewalls. Subjective
Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB range from 77 kt to 102 kt. CIMSS
ADT and AiDT estimates are 92 kt and 87 kt, respectively. Thus, the
initial intensity is held at 95 kt for this advisory.
Fernanda is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt. There has been
little change to the track forecast since the last advisory. The
hurricane is moving near the southeast periphery of a weak mid-level
ridge. A general west-northwest to westward motion is forecast over
the next several days with a slight increase in forward speed. The
official track forecast has been nudged slightly south compared to
the previous prediction, and the track remains close to the various
consensus model predictions.
The hurricane is heading into a drier airmass and expected to
cross the 26C isotherm in about 24 hours. Also, statistical models
indicate that Fernanda is experiencing moderate southeasterly wind
shear. Therefore, continued weakening is expected through the
forecast period. Simulated satellite imagery from global models
suggest that most of the convection will collapse in about 24 to 36
hours and the system will be devoid of convection in about 60
hours. Fernanda is still forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone
at 60 hours.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 17.0N 121.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 17.3N 123.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 17.6N 128.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 17.8N 131.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 18.0N 134.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 18/1200Z 18.1N 137.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z 18.3N 143.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1200Z 18.2N 149.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Delgado/Bucci
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