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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 PM HST Tue Aug 08 2023
Dora continues to be a compact and powerful hurricane on a rapid
westward track across the central Pacific. The system continues to
exhibit annular characteristics on satellite with its
compact size, well-defined eye, and its persistent and symmetric
ring of deep convection. The eye at times has appeared to become a
little cloud filled, but then quickly clears out again. The latest
subjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC and PHFO were 6.0 and SAB was
5.5. Objective estimates from CIMSS are between 110 and 115 kt.
The initial intensity has been held at 115 kt with this
advisory.
The initial motion intensity for this advisory is 270/20 kt. Model
guidance remains tightly clustered through the remaining time Dora
will be in the central Pacific basin, with more variability noted as
the system exits the central Pacific around hour 60. The forecast
track remains closely aligned with the previous advisory and follows
closely the TVCN model consensus. This maintains a westward track
for another day, and then turns to the west-northwest as it begins
to round the southwest edge of the ridge to the north. On this
track, the system will pass far south of Johnston Island Wednesday
night. The system then turns to the northwest as it moves into the
western Pacific basin Friday.
The intensity forecast continues to be the more challenging aspect
of Dora's future. The environmental conditions remain conducive for
Dora to remain a strong tropical cyclone over the next couple of
days, with little vertical wind shear and sufficiently warm
SSTs/OHC. There is good agreement that Dora will be moving over
slightly warmer waters and increased ocean heat content in about 24
hours as the cyclone starts to move to the west-northwest. While
these warmer waters could contribute to maintaining, or even
strengthening of the cyclone, southwesterly deep layer shear is
expected to begin to increase shortly thereafter, as Dora rounds the
ridge to the north. The shear is expected to increase as Dora
approaches the date line Friday. The latest ECMWF SHIPS guidance
maintains the 115 kt intensity for the next 36 hours while other
guidance slowly weakens the system. With little change expected with
Dora's immediate environment for the next day, and the ECMWF holding
it higher, have held the intensity a touch higher than the previous
forecast for the first 48 hours. The forecast then follows the
weakening in the guidance as was reflected in the previous advisory.
This update to the intensity places it on the high end of the model
consensus in the short term, and leans towards the LGEM guidance for
the later periods.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 11.4N 162.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 11.7N 165.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 12.3N 168.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 13.1N 172.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 14.1N 175.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 15.2N 179.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 16.3N 178.0E 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 17.8N 172.3E 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 19.2N 167.3E 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster M Ballard/Jelsema
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