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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 06 2023
The satellite presentation of Dora remains impressive this evening
with a very warm 10 nautical mile wide eye surrounded by a very cold
dense overcast. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity
estimates from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC came in at 6.0 (115 kt), 6.5 (127
kt), 6.5 (127 kt) respectively, while the objective Dvorak ADT and
AiDT estimates from UW-CIMSS were both 6.0 (115 kt). Using a blend
of these data, the initial intensity is set at 120 kt.
Dora is moving slightly south of due west at 20 kt. This general
motion is expected to continue during the next several days as a
deep layer ridge builds to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. A
turn to the northwest is forecast beyond day 3 as the tropical
cyclone rounds the southwestern periphery of the deep layer
subtropical ridge to the north of Hawaii. On this forecast track,
Dora is expected to move into the western Pacific basin late this
week. The forecast track has changed little from the previous
advisory and is roughly a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus
guidance and deterministic GFS and ECMWF guidance.
The environmental conditions along the forecast track of Dora during
the next several days are generally conducive for maintenance of a
very intense tropical cyclone, with the exception of the mid-level
dry air surrounding the system. Vertical wind shear will remain low
during the next 4 days, while sea surface temperatures remain around
27C. Beyond day 4 the SSTs increase into the 28/29C range, but
vertical wind shear is forecast to rise substantially. Given the
current annular appearance of Dora, the intensity forecast calls
for a very slow and steady decrease through the forecast period,
with the tropical cyclone being influenced primarily by the dry
mid-level environment surrounding the system. This forecast is
essentially a blend of the statistical and dynamical intensity
guidance and very close to the previous intensity forecast through
day 3, and slightly higher at days 4 and 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0900Z 12.5N 146.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 12.4N 149.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 12.3N 152.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 12.2N 156.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 12.3N 160.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 12.5N 164.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 12.9N 168.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 14.5N 175.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 16.5N 178.5E 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Jelsema
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