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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023
The increase in Dora's organization that started just before the
last advisory has continued during the last several hours, with a
cloud-filled eye becoming more persistent in a central dense
overcast with some cloud top temperatures colder than -80C. The
various satellite intensity estimates are now in the 95-120 kt
range, and the initial intensity is increased to a possibly
conservative 100 kt.
Dora continues moving westward or 265/16 kt along the southern side
of a deep-layer ridge to the north. This ridge is expected to build
westward, which should induce a somewhat faster forward speed while
it passes well south of Hawaii early next week. The track guidance
is still tightly clustered and has changed little since the
previous advisory, and the new track forecast is almost the same as
the previous forecast.
The easterly shear that occurred yesterday seems to be decreasing,
with that decrease probably allowing the re-intensification.
During the next 48-72 h, the center of Dora should be in a
light-shear environment with sea surface temperatures of 26-27C.
While there is still some spread, the intensity guidance
indicates that the current intensification should end in the next
6-12 h, followed by a gradual weakening. This part of the
intensity forecast follows the guidance and is a little above the
intensity consensus. After 72 h, the hurricane is expected to move
over increasing sea surface temperatures, but also move into a
drier air mass. In addition, some westerly vertical shear could
develop by 120 h. However, the guidance spread becomes quite
large, with the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models showing a
significantly higher intensity than the dynamical models. This
part of the intensity forecast will show a slow weakening, but will
lean more towards the SHIPS models than the dynamical models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 13.3N 133.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 13.2N 135.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 13.0N 139.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 12.8N 143.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 12.5N 146.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 12.4N 150.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 12.3N 154.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 12.5N 162.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 13.5N 170.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
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