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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052023
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 04 2023
 
There is a hint of Dora's eye clearing once again this evening. 
Since the last advisory, geostationary satellite imagery has shown 
deep and persistent bursts of convection near the estimated center. 
A couple of satellite microwave passes from 0241 and 0253 UTC showed 
an eye open to the north.  Subjective analyses from TAFB and SAB 
both gave a T5.0/90 kt, however given recent satellite trends, the 
initial intensity is set at 95 kt for this advisory.
 
The hurricane is moving westward at 16 kt along the southern
periphery of a ridge to its north.  This ridge is expected to build
westward, which should induce a faster forward speed while it passes
well south of Hawaii early next week.  The track guidance is still
well-clustered and the latest official track forecast is largely
unchanged.
 
Unlike the track model guidance, there is quite a bit of spread in
the intensity guidance.  Thus, there is lower-than-normal confidence
in this prediction.  Global models suggest the moderate deep-layer
vertical wind shear should decrease within 24 h, but there may
be some mid-layer shear caused by the building ridge that could
weaken Dora in a couple days.  Sea surface temperatures along the
forecast track remain relatively conducive (26-27 degrees C), but
the environmental moisture gradually decreases.  The latest NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and overall
shows some gradual weakening.  However, slight fluctuations
in intensity are possible through much of the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0900Z 13.5N 131.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 13.3N 134.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 13.2N 137.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 12.9N 140.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 12.7N 144.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  07/1800Z 12.6N 148.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 12.5N 152.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 12.5N 160.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 13.3N 167.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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