ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 PM HST Wed Aug 02 2023
Dora remains an impressive major hurricane this evening.
Geostationary satellite imagery indicates cloud top temperatures
surrounding the pinhole eye have cooled to -75 to -80 degrees C. The
initial intensity for this advisory has been increased slightly to
115 kt and is in agreement with both of the subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB.
The hurricane continues to move westward at 260/15 kt. A
well-established ridge to the north of the storm is expected to
maintain this general motion for the next several days. The most
recent track guidance is well-clustered and only minor adjustments
have been made to the latest official track forecast, which still
lies between the HCCA and TVCE multi-model consensus aids.
Model guidance suggests Dora is nearing its peak intensity. The
cyclone is currently over very warm waters (greater than 28 degrees
C) and in a environment with light-to-moderate vertical wind shear.
However, global models predict the wind shear will increase during
the next 24-48 h and induce a weakening trend. Between 60 h and
until the end of the forecast period, the wind shear should relax
again over the storm as it remains over warm waters (between 26-27
degrees C). The updated intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory prediction and shows a peak intensity of 125 kt in
12 h, which is above all model guidance. At 24 h, the forecast is
blended back into various model consensus guidance and shows gradual
weakening. Uncertainty remains high with the intensity forecast
since the compact system could be more prone to rapid intensity
fluctuations.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 15.0N 118.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 14.8N 120.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 14.4N 123.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 14.2N 127.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 13.8N 130.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 13.5N 133.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 13.3N 136.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 12.9N 143.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 12.9N 150.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Bucci
NNNN