ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 PM HST Tue Aug 01 2023
Dora continues to improve structurally on GOES 1-min satellite, and
microwave imagery. An earlier AMSR microwave pass showed that Dora
has developed a tight inner core with a convective band wrapping
entirely around the center. The 36GHz microwave channel and visible
satellite also depict what probably is the developmental stages of a
tiny eye. Deep convection has persisted over the center, with cold
cloud tops throughout the afternoon. Subjective intensity estimates
from SAB and TAFB were T3.5 and T4.0, respectively. Objective
estimates from CIMMS AiDT and ADT range from 64 to 75 knots. Given
the improved satellite trends, system structure and a blend of the
various satellite estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 65
kt for this advisory. This makes Dora the fourth hurricane of the
eastern Pacific hurricane season.
The hurricane continues to move westward with a motion at 270/14 kt.
There is not much change in the track forecast as guidance continues
to be in good agreement. The large mid-level ridge north of the
system is expected to build north-northwest, which will steer Dora
westward with a gradual turn to the west-southwest tomorrow through
the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is
very similar to the previous one, and lies near the consensus aids.
Dora is rapidly intensifying this afternoon, with an increase of 35
kt the last 24 hours. Vertical wind shear remains low and
sea-surface temperatures are very warm for the next 36 hours, so
rapid intensification is forecast to continue during that time,
which is supported by the latest SHIPS-RII guidance from both the
ECMWF and GFS. The intensity forecast lies near the corrected
consensus guidance, HCCA, through the next 72 hours. Afterwards,
SSTs begin to drop down to 27 C and an increase in easterly shear
may lead to some gradual weakening. The intensity guidance this
cycle was much lower than the previous from 72 hours through the end
of the forecast period, and thus the intensity guidance was lowered
slightly through 120 hrs. The NHC forecast intensity is still higher
than the consensus aids during this time frame, which showed further
weakening.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 16.2N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 16.1N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 15.8N 116.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 15.5N 119.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 15.0N 122.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 14.4N 125.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 14.0N 128.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 13.1N 134.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 12.7N 140.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kelly/Blake
NNNN