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Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023
200 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2023
The depression lost all of its deep convection several hours ago as
strong west-southwesterly shear has continued to disrupt the system.
Recently, a few small cells have formed about 100 miles from the
center. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory
based on a blend of subjective satellite estimates and an offset
ASCAT-C pass containing several 20-25 kt observations. However, it
seems likely the depression will degenerate into a remnant low later
today.
The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 13 kt. This general
motion should continue due to the steering flow from a mid-level
ridge to the north and northwest of the depression. The NHC
forecast has been updated with minor adjustments to the north of
the previous advisory and lies close to, though a little faster
than, the various consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/0900Z 16.6N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 17.0N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/0600Z 17.4N 131.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1800Z 17.6N 133.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Bucci
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