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HURRICANE ADRIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012023
0900 UTC SAT JUL 01 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 114.0W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 114.0W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 113.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.4N 117.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.6N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.6N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.5N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 114.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 
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