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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL222023
2100 UTC THU NOV 16 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  81.5W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  81.5W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  81.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.7N  80.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.0N  79.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.2N  76.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.9N  73.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.3N  69.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE  90SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 29.4N  64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 120SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 38.0N  54.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N  81.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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