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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 23 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  39.7W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  39.7W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  39.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.7N  41.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.9N  43.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.3N  46.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.7N  48.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.2N  50.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.0N  51.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE   0SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N  53.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 24.0N  54.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N  39.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
 
 
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