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TROPICAL STORM NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  48.6W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE  60SE  40SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  75SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  48.6W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  48.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 24.5N  49.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 26.0N  51.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 27.5N  52.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 28.8N  54.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.5N  55.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 32.7N  55.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE  90SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 38.0N  52.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 44.5N  40.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N  48.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 
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