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Hurricane Margot Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Mon Sep 11 2023
 
Satellite images this afternoon indicate that Margot continues to 
strengthen with a more defined eye present while recent microwave 
data shows improvement in the overall eye pattern. The latest TAFB 
Dvorak intensity estimate of 65 kt, combined with the improved 
satellite structure provides enough support to set the initial wind 
speed at 65 kt this forecast cycle, making Margot the fifth 
hurricane of the Atlantic season. 

Margot is moving northward at about 10 kt. This motion is expected 
to continue for the next couple of days before a slowing trend 
occurs as Margot bends to the north-northwest due to a building 
ridge to the east of the hurricane. Further slowing in the storm's 
motion is expected by this weekend as a large mid-latitude ridge 
blocks its path, effectively stalling the system. Beyond that time, 
there continues to be uncertainty in the track with the various 
model guidance showing a wide spread of possible solutions. The new 
forecast lies near the previous NHC track, shifted a bit to the 
west at long range. 

The environment will continue to become more conducive for further 
strengthening over the next 36 to 48 hours, with a gradual decrease 
in vertical shear expected while Margot remains over relatively warm 
waters of around 28 deg C. Beyond 72 hours, increasing shear and 
drier air working into the system is likely to weaken Margot some. 
The new forecast shows an increase in intensity through 48 hours 
based on the expected favorable environment and higher statistical 
guidance, leaning toward the Florida State Superensemble and NOAA 
corrected-consensus models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/2100Z 27.0N  39.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 28.5N  39.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 30.7N  40.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 32.6N  40.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 34.1N  41.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  14/0600Z 35.2N  41.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 36.0N  41.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 37.1N  40.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 37.0N  41.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Taylor/Blake
 
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