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Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023
 
The cloud pattern of the low pressure area located near the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico has gradually become
better organized today.  Radar observations show a circulation has
developed, although surface observations indicate that the western
semicircle of this circulation is rather weak at this time.  Given 
the increased organization, advisories are being initiated on 
Tropical Depression Ten.  Surface synoptic observations suggest that 
the current intensity is around 25 kt.
 
The current motion estimate is nearly stationary.  There is a 
weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical 
cyclone, leaving the system in a region of very weak steering flow. 
The dynamical guidance indicates that the system will remain in 
weak steering currents for the next 24 to 36 hours, so very little 
motion is predicted during that period.  After that time, a 
mid-level ridge begins to build to the east of the tropical cyclone. 
This should cause a generally northward motion in the next 2 to 3 
days.  Then, a gradual turn to the north-northeast is expected as 
the system moves along the northwestern periphery of the ridge.  The 
official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected 
dynamical model consensus guidance.
 
The tropical cyclone will be moving over very warm waters with only
moderate vertical wind shear anticipated during the next several
days.  Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast.  The official
forecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and shows the 
system becoming a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Users 
are reminded that there is significant uncertainty in 3-4 day 
intensity predictions and are urged to monitor changes to future 
forecasts.

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across
the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall
may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as
landslides, across western Cuba.  The depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm by Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are
expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
over portions of western Cuba within the Tropical Storm Watch area.
 
2. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next few days
and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and
strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the
Florida Panhandle by the middle of next week.  Heavy rainfall is
also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to
late next week.  Although it is too soon to specify the exact
location and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas
should monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure
that they have their hurricane plan in place.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 21.1N  86.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 21.0N  86.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 20.9N  86.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 20.8N  86.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 22.0N  85.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  29/0600Z 24.0N  85.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 26.3N  85.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 31.5N  83.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  31/1800Z 35.0N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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