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TROPICAL STORM DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052023
1500 UTC WED JUL 19 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N  39.6W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  50SE  50SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  90SE 120SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N  39.6W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N  39.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.7N  40.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.9N  41.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.6N  43.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.7N  45.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.2N  46.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.2N  48.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 44.0N  47.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 47.0N  43.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N  39.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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