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Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042023
1100 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023
 
The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone has improved this 
evening. Deep convection has become more persistent during the past 
several hours over the western portion of the circulation. GOES 
proxy-visible satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data 
indicate the center has moved farther underneath the expanding cold 
dense overcast tonight. An ASCAT-B pass at 00 UTC showed an area of 
30 to 35-kt winds in the northern semicircle of the cyclone, which 
supports upgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Cindy with this 
advisory.

Despite some drier mid-level air in the surrounding environment, 
modest strengthening is forecast in the near term as the cyclone 
moves over 27-28C waters with generally weak vertical wind shear 
during the next couple of days. By Sunday, Cindy is forecast to move 
under the influence of an upper-level trough extending from the 
central Atlantic to the northeastern Caribbean Sea. The increasing 
deep-layer shear associated with this feature is likely to cause the 
small cyclone to weaken early next week, and the official NHC 
forecast shows Cindy degenerating to a 30-kt remnant low by day 5.

Cindy is moving west-northwestward at 285/12 kt. The cyclone is 
expected to continue on a west-northwestward heading during the next 
several days as it is steered by a subtropical ridge to its 
northeast. This track keeps Cindy well to the northeast of the 
northern Leeward Islands. The guidance is in fairly good agreement, 
and the latest NHC track forecast remains close to the multi-model 
consensus aids and is very similar to the previous forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 11.7N  45.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 12.4N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 13.6N  49.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 15.1N  52.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 16.7N  54.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 18.3N  57.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 19.8N  59.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 22.3N  64.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 24.6N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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