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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032023
200 AM AST Thu Jun 22 2023
 
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND STRONGER WINDS AND 
LOWER PRESSURE IN BRET...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR ST. LUCIA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 55.8W
ABOUT 250 MI...465 KM E OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane Watch for St. 
Lucia.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
 
A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for...
* Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Bret.  Additional watches or warnings may be required
later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 55.8 West.  Bret is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next
few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to
approach the Lesser Antilles today, move across the Lesser Antilles 
late today and tonight, and then move westward across the eastern 
and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday.
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 
km/h) with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast 
today while Bret approaches the Lesser Antilles.  Weakening is 
anticipated to begin tonight or Friday after Bret passes the Lesser 
Antilles, and the system is likely to dissipate over the central 
Caribbean Sea by Saturday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 996 mb (29.41 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and
on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area 
this evening or tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected 
within the tropical storm warning areas and possible within the 
watch areas late today and tonight.
 
RAINFALL:  Through Saturday, storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across
portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to St. Vincent
and the Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could
lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain.
Urban flooding is also possible.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Bret are expected to begin affecting
portions of the Lesser Antilles today.  These swells are likely to 
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please 
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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