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TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032023
1500 UTC TUE JUN 20 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  47.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  47.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N  46.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.3N  49.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  10SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.7N  51.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  10SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.2N  54.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  20SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.6N  57.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.9N  60.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N  63.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 14.4N  70.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N  47.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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