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Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022023
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Convection has persisted throughout the morning, although the 
tropical cyclone remains highly asymmetric and poorly organized. 
The low-level center is located southwest of the large area of 
persistent deep convection. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
has found no evidence of intensification this morning, and the 
Dvorak satellite intensity estimate continues to support a steady 
current intensity of 30 kt for this advisory.  
 
The depression is moving slowly south-southeastward with an initial 
motion estimate of 175/4 kt. Numerical guidance and the official 
track forecast remain similar to the previous advisory. The system 
is expected to move southward to southeastward and accelerate its 
forward speed somewhat during the next day. During this time, the 
depression is expected to move along the western side of a 
mid-level trough over Florida and east of a ridge over the western 
Gulf of Mexico. The official track forecast is a blend of the 
dynamical model consensus tracks and is generally consistent though 
slightly east of the prior forecast.
 
The Hurricane Hunters will continue investigating the system for the 
next several hours, and a short-lived increase to tropical storm 
intensity cannot be ruled out. However, conditions are expected to 
become increasingly unfavorable for intensification later today and 
tonight. A combination of increasing vertical shear and drier air to 
the west of the trough over the extreme eastern Gulf is expected to 
cause the system to weaken in the next 12-24 hours. The official 
intensity forecast shows the system as a remnant low in 36 hours and 
dissipated by early Sunday.
 
Based on the track and intensity forecast for this system, coastal
watches and warnings are not necessary at this time.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 26.7N  86.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 25.6N  86.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 24.2N  85.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 23.2N  84.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
 
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