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HURRICANE ROSLYN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192022
2100 UTC SAT OCT 22 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO TO ESCUINAPA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO ESCUINAPA
* LAS ISLAS MARIAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ESCUINAPA TO MAZATLAN
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PLAYA PERULA TO MANZANILLO
* NORTH OF ESCUINAPA TO MAZATLAN
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 106.6W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  954 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE  90SE 135SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 106.6W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 106.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.4N 106.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 23.2N 104.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.0N 102.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 106.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 23/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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