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Tropical Storm Paine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172022
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 04 2022
Deep convection continues to burst around the western portion of
Paine's circulation. Infrared and early-light visible satellite
imagery suggests that there has been some increase in convective
banding, and that the center is slightly more embedded within the
colder cloud tops. Despite the slight increase in organization,
subjective and objective Dvorak classifications have not changed
much and still support an initial intensity of 35 kt. Hopefully
scatterometer data will provide additional information on the size
and intensity of Paine this afternoon.
Paine still has a very brief window of opportunity in which to
intensify. The deep-layer shear is forecast to remain low today,
but is expected to increase significantly tonight and Wednesday.
Therefore, some slight strengthening is predicted, followed by
gradual weakening due to the unfavorable upper-level environment
and an increasing dry mid-level air mass. Paine is expected to
become a remnant low in about 48 hours, and dissipate around day 3.
The cyclone is moving northwestward or 325/6 kt. Paine should
continue northwestward for the 24-36 hours around the western
side of a mid-level ridge. After that time, a bend to the
west-northwest and west is predicted as Paine becomes increasingly
shallow and is steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The
latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
lies near the simple consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 17.5N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 18.1N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 18.6N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 18.9N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 19.2N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0000Z 19.4N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z 19.4N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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