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Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022
This morning's conventional satellite presentation consists of a
partially exposed, well-defined surface circulation with a recent,
shapeless burst of deep convection near and north of the surface
center. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt and is supported by
the subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB and
SAB. Increasing shear magnitude and intrusion of dry stable air
should degenerate Newton by early Monday, or possibly sometime
today. The statistical SHIPS intensity guidance has Newton as a
persistent depression through early Tuesday, but the global models
show Newton decaying earlier, and the NHC forecast follows the
latter solution.
Newton's initial motion is 260/7 kt, a little left of due west.
A west-southwestward turn is expected by this evening, followed by
a turn southwestward early Monday while embedded in the
northeasterly low-level trade wind flow. The official track
forecast is slightly faster than the 0300 UTC advisory beyond the
24-hour period and has been adjusted south to align more closely to
the NOAA HFIP consensus model and the TVCE aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 19.4N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 19.0N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 17.8N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/1800Z 16.4N 119.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/0600Z 15.0N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/1800Z 13.7N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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