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Tropical Storm Newton Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022
Small bursts of convection continue to form near the center of
Newton's center. A recent satellite microwave pass still showed
a small curved band in the northern semicircle of the circulation.
Subjective and objective satellite classifications range between
25-35 kt. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 35
kt.
The combination of low environmental relative humidities and
moderate vertical wind shear are expected to slowly weaken Newton,
despite the relatively warm sea surface temperatures. There is
little change in the latest intensity forecast and Newton is still
expected to become a remnant low in two days and dissipate within
three days.
Newton is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt and gradually turning to
the west. As convection slowly dwindles, the shallow vortex is
expected to turn westward and eventually southwestward in the
low-level flow in the next day or so. The track guidance is
tightly clustered and the official forecast track is very similar to
the previous prediction.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 19.1N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 19.3N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 19.1N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 18.5N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 17.5N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0000Z 16.3N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Bucci
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