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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022
While there are several convective bursts forming in a scattered
fashion around the low-level circulation of the depression this
evening, this activity lacks much organization. 0000 UTC Dvorak
intensity estimates from SAB/TAFB were CI 1.5/2.5 respectively, and
an average of these estimates still supports maintaining the
intensity at 30 kt for this advisory.
A prominent upper-level anticyclone to the north of Tropical
Depression Ten-E is expected to further increase the easterly
vertical wind shear over the system, with the ECMWF-SHIPS showing
the magnitude approaching 30 kt in the next 24 hours. This shear
should result in the depression ingesting dry and more stable air
from outside of its core, further limiting convective activity.
Thus, weakening is anticipated, and simulated satellite imagery from
the global models continues to suggest the system will no longer be
able to produce organized convection by tomorrow night, marking its
transition to a post-tropical remnant low. This remnant low will
likely survive several more days before it dissipates.
The depression has been drifting to the west-southwest, with the
latest motion estimated at 245/3 kt. Low-level steering is expected
to maintain a slow west-southwestward heading over the next day or
so with a gradual bend westward forecast thereafter. The latest NHC
track was again shifted a bit south of the previous one given a
southward shift in the track guidance envelope, but still lies near
the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids during the forecast period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 17.8N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 17.7N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 17.5N 114.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1200Z 17.4N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0000Z 17.4N 115.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1200Z 17.4N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0000Z 17.4N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
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