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Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 PM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022
Convection associated with Georgette became slightly better
organized after the release of the previous advisory, and although
the cloud tops have since warmed, there is a loose band of
thunderstorms around the southwestern portion of the circulation.
Georgette's circulation is still well defined in recent ASCAT data,
therefore the system is likely to remain a tropical cyclone for a
bit longer. Peak wind retrievals from the ASCAT-B instrument were
27-28 kt so the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory.
Despite the recent slight improvement in organization, the overall
intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged. A marginal
environment characterized by moderate northeasterly shear, SSTs of
26-27C, and mid-level humidity of 55-60 percent are likely to result
in gradual weakening over the next couple of days. GFS and ECMWF
model simulated satellite imagery indicates that the convection will
wane in 36 to 48 hours, and Georgette is still predicted to
degenerate into a remnant low around that time. The system is
forecast to become an open trough in 3 to 4 days.
Georgette is moving northeastward at about 6 kt. Low- to mid-level
southwesterly flow on the south side of post-tropical cyclone Frank
should continue to steer Georgette generally northeastward during
the next 12 to 18 hours. After that time, a low-level ridge is
forecast to build to the north of the cyclone, which is expected to
cause Georgette to turn back sharply westward. The latest dynamical
model envelope has again shifted northward and eastward and the NHC
track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The official track
forecast, however, lies just to the west and south of the various
consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 14.7N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 15.5N 129.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 16.6N 129.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 17.2N 130.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1800Z 17.7N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0600Z 17.7N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
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