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Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
200 AM PDT Tue Aug 02 2022
Like the last couple of nights, Georgette is exhibiting a bursting
pattern this morning, with just enough convective activity to
maintain writing advisories on the tropical cyclone. With that said,
the convection is waning, lacks much organization, and the low-level
center appears to now be exposed to the northeast of the coldest
cloud tops, as indicated by a recently arriving ASCAT-C pass.
Satellite intensity estimates have not changed much despite this
convection, and the peak winds from the scatterometer data was only
26 kt. The initial intensity will remain 30 kt this advisory.
Georgette appears to be making the long-awaited turn to the
north-northeast, with the latest motion estimated at 030/4 kt. This
motion is due to the presence of low- to mid-level southwesterly
flow south of Frank, which is influencing Georgette's steering.
However, after the next 24-48 hours, a low-level ridge is expected
to build back in after Frank departs to the north. The track
guidance responds to this changing synoptic pattern by making
Georgette take a sharp turn westward and then west-southwestward by
the end of the forecast period. The latest track forecast was
shifted a little east of the prior one, but not as far east as the
multi-model consensus aids.
It is unclear how long Georgette will be able to survive the current
marginal environment of moderate (15-20 kt) northeasterly vertical
wind shear and dry (55-60 percent) mid-level relative humidity. Even
sea-surface temperatures gradually cool along its track, from 27 C
currently to below 26 C in 48 hours. Afterwards, both GFS and ECMWF
model simulated IR images suggest the remaining convection with
Georgette will dissipate, and the system is forecast to become a
remnant low by Thursday afternoon. While little change in strength
is shown in the NHC forecast over the next couple of days, it
would not be surprising if the cyclone becomes a remnant low or
loses its well-defined circulation sooner than indicated here.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 13.7N 130.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 14.4N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 15.4N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 16.2N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 16.7N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 16.6N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0600Z 16.1N 134.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin
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