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Tropical Depression Georgette Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 01 2022
Georgette continues to be characterized by pulsating and somewhat
disorganized deep convection near it's center of circulation. The
latest Dvorak intensity estimates range from T-1.0 to T-2.5, and a
blend of these values suggests that the initial intensity remains 30
kt.
Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is beginning its
turn toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and the current
motion is north-northwest at 3 kt. A turn to the north-northeast is
expected by tonight, and that motion should continue for a couple of
days. The ridge is forecast to strengthen by late this week, which
should cause Georgette to turn westward along with an increase in
forward speed. Overall, the track model guidance has become a
little more clustered than previous cycles, and there has been a
slight shift to the right in the guidance through 72 h. Therefore,
the latest NHC track forecast was adjusted a little right of the
previous one through that time period, but remains a little to the
left of the consensus.
Over the next several days, Georgette should remain in an
environment of moderate east-northeasterly vertical shear and within
a relatively dry low- to mid-level air mass. By 60 h, the cyclone
should move over waters of 25-26 degrees C. These conditions are
expected to prevent restrengthening of the cyclone and cause it to
degenerate into a remnant low toward the latter part of the week.
The official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one
and is in good agreement with most of the intensity guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 13.4N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 13.8N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 14.5N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 15.4N 129.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 16.4N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 17.1N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 17.3N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 16.6N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1200Z 15.8N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
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Forecaster Latto
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