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Tropical Storm Georgette Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082022
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 30 2022
The structure of Georgette continues to show evidence of
northeasterly shear, with most of the convective activity occurring
southwest of the estimated center. Persistent convection near the
center of the storm, as well as subjective and objective Dvorak
estimates from SAB, TAFB, and UW-CIMSS, continue to support an
initial intensity of 45 kt, consistent with the prior advisory.
The mid-level ridge to the west of Hurricane Frank continues to
steer the tropical storm west-southwestward, with a current
estimated motion of 255/9 kt. This motion is expected to continue
during the day today, after which the steering currents are
expected to weaken, resulting in a slower forward motion during the
next couple days. By 72 hours, Georgette is expected to begin
moving northeastward under the influence of southwesterly steering
flow. The track guidance diverges significantly after 36 hours,
with many of the consensus aids indicating a delayed turn toward
the north or northeast compared to the previous official forecast.
The official forecast track is shifted westward from the previous
NHC forecast and represents a blend of the HCCA and the previous
forecast.
The combined influences of east-northeasterly vertical shear and
the proximity to Hurricane Frank are expected to limit the
intensification of Georgette during the next several days. The
intensity is forecast to hold steady during the next day or so,
with gradual weakening expected thereafter before dissipating after
96 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the prior
forecast and aligned with the consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 14.0N 126.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 13.7N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 13.4N 129.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 13.4N 129.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 13.5N 129.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 13.8N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 14.4N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 15.5N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Beven
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